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Brexit destiny with “no deal”

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After Brexit Minister Davis and Foreign Minister Johnson quit their jobs the last week, most people all around Europe are wondering what is going to happen in the UK. According to the labor leader Jeremy Corbyn, the end for Theresa May’s Government should be very close, because everybody is leaving “the sinking ship”.

The whole country is continuously shaken by the possibility of an imminent catastrophic divorce from the EU, since it seems like the thread of all the question is getting lost. What made The United Kingdom a model during the last centuries, the rule of law, is now turning into the worst trap for the Country: in Parliament most of the representatives don’t recognize themselves in the aim of Brexit, but they have to work on it, or they will betray the democracy.

A very complicated scenario that also reflects on the citizens. It’s known that many of them lost the illusion of getting what they hoped for with this action, meanwhile eurosceptics continue with their angry battle, even if the possibility of a “no-deal” exit from the EU is more real every day.

But what is going to happen is The UK will step out from Bruxelles without “soft agreements”?

The British Government is writing a 70 page document right now to share with all the families to prepare them for this eventuality and the the EU Parliamentarians are doing the same with a 15 page document where they express their perturbation.

Sterling will lose at least 15% (added to the 15%  that it lost in 2016 after Brexit announcement), causing increases of duties in many sectors: +45% for milk and cheese, +37% for meat and +10% for clothes, shoes and tobacco. Restoring border control will bring delays to the delivery system. The import/export process could become long and complicated, since many products wouldn’t be accepted in both directions.  According to previsions, every family will spend 500 sterling more each year, with the Gross domestic product losing 6%.

3 million European citizens status could became confused and not clear at all. They could lose access to the British Health Service and probably authorities will have to restore visas process and maybe The UK will lose the free data roaming. Lot of british realities will be at risk of failing, since many european employees could risk losing their residence agreements.

Right now 30.000 people are crossing the space between Northern and The Republic of Ireland and even if Europe says that there won’t be any control needed between the two countries, the divorce could make political and social tensions rise again.

After March 2019 many flights will probably be cancelled, since Thomas Cook, Ryanair and other flying companies already declared that they won’t assure anything about what will happen after the “flying space closing”. Also medical commerce would have deep impact from the separation, since many UK products wouldn’t be allowed into EU anymore and the other way around.

Everything could still change for UK, but for now, all of us have to get ready to one of biggest social and economic change that we had in last 30 years, and to all the consequences that it will bring.

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Carlo Colleluori

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