Canada’s job gains ease but labour market remains tight
Canada’s latest jobs data paints a picture of cautious momentum rather than a boom or a bust. After a soft summer, the economy added 66,600 positions in October 2025—on top of strong gains in September—nudging the unemployment rate down to 6.9 %.
Most of the growth came from part-time roles and service-sector industries such as retail, wholesale, transportation and warehousing, with Ontario leading the way. For prospective expats, that mix of steady hiring, rising wages and lingering pockets of weakness offers both opportunities and reasons to plan their move carefully.
Canada’s job market surprised observers in October 2025. Statistics Canada reported that the economy added 66,600 jobs, all in part‑time positions, after gaining 60,400 jobs in September. These gains reversed losses recorded in July and August.
The unemployment rate fell to 6.9 %, down from 7.1 % in September. Youth unemployment, which had reached a 15‑year high in September, dropped to 14.1 %. The core‑aged group (25‑54 years) saw a healthy increase of 38,800 jobs, although full‑time employment declined by 18,500 positions.
Analysts noted that wholesale and retail trade and transportation and warehousing contributed most to the job gains. Ontario led provincial performance with 55,000 new jobs. Average hourly wages for permanent employees rose 4 % year‑on‑year, indicating continued wage pressure.
Economists expect growth to plateau in November
Looking ahead, RBC Economics forecasts that employment growth flattened in November, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9 %. After September and October’s strong gains, RBC analysts predict slower population growth will limit the number of new entrants to the labour market.
Despite the softness, RBC notes that the unemployment rate is still roughly one percentage point above a “normal” level. Employment in manufacturing and transportation remains weak but improved in October. Wage growth ticked higher in October but is expected to edge lower in the coming months.
RBC emphasises that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates further unless there is a significant downturn in growth or inflation. This signals a period of cautious stability for businesses planning hiring and investment.
Where the jobs are: sectors and provinces
The strongest gains in October were in wholesale and retail, transportation and warehousing and services. These sectors often employ newcomers and international students. Ontario’s job surge was partly linked to events like the Toronto Blue Jays’ playoff run, but it also reflected broader recovery in trade‑exposed industries. The services sector employs four out of five Canadian workers, and retail/wholesale alone accounts for around 15 % of employment.
For prospective expats, provinces with diversified economies such as Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta continue to offer opportunities. However, sectors linked to manufacturing and exports may remain volatile due to global trade tensions.
Why this matters to expats
- Improving job prospects: Two consecutive months of job gains indicate tentative recovery after a weak summer.
- Stable unemployment: Economists expect the unemployment rate to hold at 6.9 %, suggesting steady hiring conditions.
- Sector‑specific opportunities: Wholesale, retail, transportation and warehousing are driving employment and often have entry‑level roles suitable for newcomers.
- Wages rising: Average permanent‑employee wages climbed 4 % year‑over‑year, enhancing purchasing power for residents.
- Caution remains: Slower population growth and cautious central‑bank policy mean job growth could stall, so expats should plan carefully.
Mini‑FAQ
Q: What is Canada’s current unemployment rate?
As of October 2025, the unemployment rate was 6.9 %, down from 7.1 % in September. RBC expects the rate to remain at this level in November.
Q: Which sectors are adding jobs?
Statistics Canada reported that wholesale and retail trade, transportation and warehousing and other service‑sector industries accounted for most of the October job gains. Ontario saw the largest provincial increase with 55,000 jobs.
Q: How are wages changing?
Average hourly wages for permanent employees increased by 4 % year‑on‑year in October. Economists expect wage growth to moderate in coming months.
