5 effective key insights on China’s housing market update
Official reports and private surveys show that China’s housing market is still weak. Demand for homes is low, even though new-home prices have risen a little. Here’s what expats need to know.
Prices and transactions: late‑2025 snapshot
Data from October and November 2025 show a “two-speed” housing market in China. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new home prices dropped 0.5 % month‑on‑month in October 2025 and were 2.2 % lower than a year earlier. Property investment fell 14.7 % in the first 10 months of the year, and the area of homes sold also went down. The slump continued even during the usual busy selling season in September and October.
By November, a private survey showed a more mixed picture. China Index Academy reported that new-home prices rose 0.37% month-on-month, up from 0.28% in October, while resale prices fell 0.94%. There were many homes listed for sale, and buyers stayed cautious, which kept the second-hand market weak.
Sales data, however, shows more activity. Research firm CRIC estimated that second-hand home sales across 100 cities reached about 1.7 million m², 14% higher than in October. This rise in sales may mean the market is close to the bottom, even though prices are still falling.
Regional differences
Price trends vary by city tier. In “first-tier” cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, second-hand prices fell about 1.3% in November. In Beijing, the average price was around ¥65,000/m², but the number of sales still increased.
In “second-tier” cities, prices dropped close to 1%, but sales grew as buyers used the lower prices to enter the market. In cities such as Changsha and Nanning, second-hand sales more than doubled compared with October. This shows that some local markets are still quite active.
Key numbers at a glance
- October new‑home price change: −0.5 % month‑on‑month
- October year‑on‑year change: −2.2 %
- November new‑home price change: +0.37 %
- November resale price change: −0.94 %
- 1Q–Oct property investment: −14.7 % y/y
- Second‑hand transactions (Nov): ≈1.7 million m², +14 % m/m
Policy response and market sentiment
The government in Beijing has announced many support measures since mid-2024 but has not launched a large, full bailout. Analysts say officials have mostly repeated earlier promises instead of adding major new spending.
Weak buyer confidence, an ageing population in smaller cities and a surge in resale listings remain key problems. Centaline analyst Zhang Dawei says the government may need to loosen mortgage rules further to support confidence.
Investment bank Morgan Stanley believes mortgage subsidies could help. The bank estimates that 400 billion yuan (US$57 billion) per year may be required to restore confidence. Chief China economist Robin Xing says subsidies are one option under discussion for 2026. This shows that leaders are talking about targeted help instead of a huge rescue for the whole sector.
At the same time, central authorities say they want “high-quality” development. Government planners have talked about better housing supply, stronger financing channels and dealing with risks in their 2026–2030 plan. At a national urban-renewal meeting, the Ministry of Housing said that urban renewal and better city management will help drive growth.
Outlook for 2026
Market watchers think differences between city tiers will grow. In core cities, high-end projects have pushed the average new-home price to about ¥17,036 per m², up 0.37% month-on-month and 2.68% year-on-year. Developers are speeding up sales to hit their year-end targets. Experts also expect more high-quality projects to be launched in the fourth quarter.
However, weak demand in smaller cities could limit price growth for the whole country. Most analysts think the market is slowly stabilising but still far from a strong recovery.
For expats thinking about a move, these trends mean more choice and possibly better deals. Rental markets remain competitive in many cities, and developers may offer discounts or other incentives to attract buyers. Anyone hoping to buy a home should watch for changes in purchase rules and mortgage requirements.
Why this matters to expats
- Lower entry prices: Falling prices and higher inventories mean expats may find better value when renting or buying property.
- Policy changes ahead: Mortgage subsidies and eased restrictions could make it easier for foreigners to obtain financing or qualify for purchases.
- Regional variation: Market conditions differ sharply by city; understanding local trends helps expats choose where to live.
- Urban renewal: Government focus on high‑quality development may improve infrastructure and services in popular expat districts.
Mini‑FAQ
Are home prices likely to fall further in 2026?
Prices are stabilising in major cities but remain under pressure in smaller markets. Analysts expect modest declines or flat prices in early 2026, especially in the resale market. Policy support could cushion the downturn, but a significant rebound is unlikely until buyer confidence improves.
What mortgage options are available to expats?
Banks in China generally require larger down payments from foreign buyers and proof of residency or work status. Proposed mortgage subsidies and lower transaction taxes could make financing more accessible, but expats should consult lenders for specific requirements.
How can I stay informed about regional market differences?
Monitor official data from the National Bureau of Statistics and private surveys like China Index Academy. Local property agencies and our city guides provide insights into neighbourhood‑level trends and help you evaluate options.
